The origin of the substantial and successive injections of liquidity followed concern surrounding the health of the US financial system – which ultimately weighed on stocks. Yet, the injection of liquidity by the Fed was supportive of EM currencies.Despite a relatively strong performance in EM currencies to date, two issues surface. First, returns from purely EM currency exposure remain relatively flat since November 2007. However, the volatility of returns is substantially higher in the recent period coincident with the financial stress originating in the US. For example, the actual 5-day volatility of the EM High Yielding index was 8.8% between July 1, 2007 and June 30, 2008 relative to a scant 6.3% in the first half of 2007, 6.5% in 2006, and 5.5% in 2005. In fact, the identical measure for EM vol is now in excess of 10%. Thus, currency movements have been quite choppy, despite being range-bound.
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Monday, July 14, 2008
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